Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score Dan Zmijewski X-Score Pada Perusahaan Subindustri Supermarket Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2020-2024

Abstract

ANALYSIS OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION USING THE ALTMAN Z-SCORE AND ZMIJEWSKI X-SCORE METHODS IN SUPERMARKET SUB-INDUSTRY COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE FOR THE 2020–2024 PERIOD

Digital transformation pressures have strengthened the influence of e-commerce and weakened the performance of conventional retail, creating financial distress risks for primary goods retail companies in Indonesia, particularly within the supermarket subindustry. This study analyzes bankruptcy potential in 5 supermarket companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020–2024, with a total of 25 firm-year observations, using the Altman Z-Score and Zmijewski X-Score models and comparing their predictive outcomes. A quantitative approach was applied based on secondary financial statement data, and differences in classification results were tested using the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. The findings show that the Altman Z-Score classified 18 observations as bankrupt, 4 in the grey area, and 3 as non-bankrupt, while the Zmijewski X-Score classified 10 as bankrupt and 15 as non-bankrupt. The Wilcoxon test yielded a p-value of 0.005 < 0.05, confirming a significant difference between the two models. Furthermore, the Zmijewski X-Score achieved a higher accuracy rate of 60% compared to the Altman Z-Score at 28%, indicating that it provides a more representative depiction of the actual financial condition of Indonesian supermarket companies.